The light situation of corn purchases and sales in northern ports continued, and the confidence of industry players in the Northeast market declined, leading to a continued decline in the auction reserve rate of temporary reserves. The market is waiting for the favorable situation to emerge, and the focus is on the growth of new crops. In June, the purchase price of corn in northern ports dropped rapidly, and the purchase price of second-grade grains dropped from a monthly high of 1,930 yuan / ton to 1,870 yuan / ton, a cumulative decrease of 60 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.11%. With the normalization of temporary reserve auctions and weak demand for downstream feed and deep processing, the fundamental situation of oversupply during the auction period is difficult to change. The biggest factor that may support industry confidence in July-August comes from the growth of the new season crops.
After entering June, precipitation in the Northeast region is frequent, and the early spring drought in most regions has been alleviated. Appropriate moisture conditions ensure the corn emergence rate. According to Zhuochuang's monitoring, the spring corn emergence in the northeast region is generally good. In the same period last year, large-scale seedling replacements in Liaoning and Jilin no longer occur. It is expected that the situation of the second crop seedlings will basically disappear after the new crop matures. Accompanying more precipitation is lower accumulated temperature, and the growth rate of new season corn in Northeast China is slower than the same period last year. According to Zhuochuang Information Monitoring, most of the new season corn in Jilin, Heilongjiang, and northern Inner Mongolia are in the 6-8 leaf stage, and Liaoning and southern Inner Mongolia Corn is in the 9-10 leaf stage, which is 8-10 days slower than last year.
In addition, the meteorological situation in the critical period of corn growth in the new season is still severe. The meteorological department predicts that due to the impact of El Niño, China ’s climatic conditions during the flood season this year were generally deviated, and the precipitation was “south more and less northâ€. In addition, the temperature in most parts of the country this year was 1-4 ° C higher than the same period last year. Not conducive to future lodging resistance. In addition, the summer drought will affect the pollination and growth of corn, which will most likely affect the yield.
In the early part of June, there was news that the market's short-term hype in the new season corn growth was slow, but because it did not enter the critical period of growth, the impact on the spot in the market period was weak. After entering the middle and late July, the intensity of new crop yields was greater, which will directly affect The market's expectations for the price of corn in the new season and the intention to participate in the auction of Chen Liang have a direct reflection on the transaction volume and price of temporary reserve auctions.
In addition, the potential impact of Spodoptera frugiperda requires continuous attention. Spodoptera frugiperda has been found in more than 1,000 counties in 19 provinces, with an area of ​​about 5 million mu. Mainly in the southern region, it occurs in a lamellar shape and spreads northward. July-August is the season when the southwest monsoon is the strongest, and it is also the key season when the grasshopper Spodoptera flies northward with the monsoon. The hazards remain.
On the whole, the low price of corn has been running for nearly one month, and the negative effects of African swine fever, deep processing shutdown and maintenance, and Sino-US business negotiations have basically been fulfilled. The reduction of holdings in the production links and the advancement of stocks of southern manufacturers have formed a period of loose supply and demand, which has led to a decline in corn prices. As the price of Northeast production areas returns to the bottom price transaction cost line, the volume of temporary reserve auctions has decreased, port inventory has been reduced, and the supply of loose goods has reached all stages. The price of corn in Northeast China has basically bottomed out, and the market price fluctuated in July. The growth of new crops or the formation stage in late Sex quotes.
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