Regulatory "stability" word in the fourth quarter difficult to raise the price of sugar

The 2011/2012 crop national sugar meeting was held in Haikou, Hainan, yesterday. The government regulation based on stability has become the focus of attention of all parties. Officials of the National Development and Reform Commission have made it clear that they do not allow the market to appear, and the new crop season is 7,000 yuan/ton-7500. The yuan/ton spot operating price range is accepted by each sugar producing area.

"Some people think that there will be a wave of prices in the fourth quarter, a wave of bullish market," Liu Xiaonan, deputy director of the Economic and Trade Circulation Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, made it clear at the meeting that if the price is stable, it will not suppress the market, but does not want to see so-called Awkward market. “If the market does not fluctuate, there will be no problem if the market suddenly fluctuates. There is no problem if the country immediately puts in reserve sugar. It needs 100,000 tons to put in 100,000 tons, 300,000 tons to put in 300,000 tons, and 60 Ten thousand tons will be put into 600,000 tons, and the existing finished sugar is not enough, and sugar can be processed for a long period of time.To sum up, in a crucial period, we hope that all aspects of our work will be more solid in order to maintain the smooth operation of the market. We hope that this meeting can be followed by To achieve this goal." He said.

In addition, from the statements made by representatives of all parties, we all agreed that the protection of the interests of farmers, the current price of sugar is running at a more reasonable price, the decline is not desirable, but excessive increase is also undesirable. Representatives of major producing areas in Guangxi and Yunnan all agreed that there will be a slight increase in sugar production next year, but a gap of 2 million tons of sugar will still exist next year. The price of sugar next year should not be underestimated.

In the crop season just past, the average price of sugar was 7,078 yuan/ton, an increase of 42% year-on-year. According to the final annual report data reported by Guangxi sugar industry enterprises, in the 2010/2011 crop season, 55.66 million tons of sugar cane was added to the region, an increase of 60,000 tons, an increase of 0.11%; the production of mixed sugar was 6.718 million tons, a decrease of 366,200 tons year-on-year. , A reduction of 5.14%; sugarcane sugar content 13.93%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7 percentage points; mixed sugar production rate 12.13%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.67 percentage points; white granulated sugar average sales price 7078.15 yuan / ton, an increase of 2094.52 yuan / ton, or 42.03 %.

For the new year, the price trend of sugar, Guangxi and Guangdong, according to artificial, material and other costs, domestic sugar price of 7,000 yuan / ton -7,500 yuan / ton is reasonable, but also by the sugar-producing areas are welcome. As for the sugar price market before the Spring Festival, a consensus has been reached that stocks are weak and dealers need to increase their stocking efforts. For the sugar factory, it is necessary to carefully study the spirit of the sugar club and formulate a detailed sales plan.

Although the above price ranges are recognized by the domestic planting and crushing industries, the global price of sugar has a great influence on domestic sugar prices.

Lu Shiqiang, an analyst at Jiangnan Futures Research and Development, believes that the global sugar supply outlook will improve in the coming year and international sugar prices will be under pressure. In the 2011/2012 crop season, there will be a surplus of 4.2 million tons of sugar. In the medium to long term, the international sugar market pattern has begun to shift to supply and demand, which will undoubtedly have a negative effect on the operation of the sugar market. The focus of the international sugar price operation in the later period will be shifted downwards, which also means that it is difficult for domestic sugar prices to obtain sufficient kinetic energy from the external disk.

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