Painful raw materials rose following the industry chain is expected to continue to improve

The business club reported on November 2 that it was driven by energy-saving emission reductions and company outages and maintenance. Since mid-to-late October, the market for paranitrophenyl chloride, a raw material for paracetamol, has soared from 6,400 yuan (t). , the same below) rose to 7500 yuan, high-end to 7800 yuan, week-long increase of more than 17%. This is another continuous bottom rally since August and broke through the previous high, breaking the long-held “neighboring and weak” conventional market operation rule of nitrochlorobenzene.

Based on the laws of industrial chain transmission, paracetamol rose more than 13%. In addition, the winter season is the peak season for paracetamol, indicating that the follow-up of the paracetamol industrial chain is expected to continue.

Casual factors boosted

The increase in price of this paracetamol was mainly affected by the increase in the price of raw materials and basic raw materials and the increase in demand.

Recently, the pace of domestic energy-saving emission reduction has accelerated, and the control of energy-saving and emission-reduction targets has become a major headache for all localities. Although the country has always emphasized that emission reductions cannot rely on power curtailment, the phenomenon of intermittent power curtailment cannot be avoided everywhere. As a result, domestic nitrochlorobenzene companies have severely restricted production. In the short term, the domestic comprehensive utilization rate once fell to 45%, and the supply of goods was seriously insufficient. .

The limited production of enterprises led to a serious shortage of supply in the market, and the prices have risen in short-term. Starting in mid-October, nitrochlorobenzene has begun to heat up significantly, from 6,400 yuan to 6,800 yuan. With the maintenance and shutdown of the 100,000-ton device of Nanhua Company, the supply of goods in the market was stretched. The second time a week, there was a sharp increase in price, which rose to 7,500 yuan. By the end of the second quarter, the high-end has been implemented to 7,800 yuan, forming a wave of downstream buying. Quotes.

In addition, the pushing up of raw materials has also prompted companies to increase their prices, and strictly control the proportion of low-cost shipments. The chemical market has seen a macro improvement since October, with basic raw materials increasing. Pure benzene and nitric acid, which are the main raw materials for nitrochlorobenzene, have risen by 10% and 33% respectively. In addition to enterprises directly from pure benzene to nitrochlorobenzene, enterprises that produce chlorinated benzene alone still account for more than 30% of domestic production companies. At the same time, due to the increase in the price of liquid chlorine, the procurement costs increase, and it is impossible to Meet chlorinated benzene supply and other issues.

By the favorable factors of comprehensive raw material price increase, domestic nitrochlorobenzene companies have increased their prices. The original plan of low-end price shipments has been repeatedly compressed, and the high-end transaction prices have been continuously updated, resulting in the nitro Chlorobenzene rose rapidly.

Recently, the prices of consumer goods in the domestic chemical industry have also risen to varying degrees. Consumers in the fields of medicine, dyes, and auxiliaries have seen a modest recovery, ranging from 10% to 15%. Among them, due to the increase of seasonal demand in the pharmaceutical sector, nitrochlorobenzene continued to rise, the market conducted faster, and is still expected to continue to take a good walk. In addition, coupled with the upsurge of the market, there are also artificial speculation factors, and some companies are worried that the price of industrial products will form general factors, so the implementation of a centralized purchase of inventory behavior has pushed up prices.

Painful industrial chain is expected to continue to pull

It is understood that after the strong rise of nitrochlorobenzene, it is expected to cool down in the near future. However, in the pharmaceutical industry chain, such as para-aminophenol, paracetamol affected by good demand, the hot spots will continue. For example, paracetamol rose continuously since the end of September, rising from 18,500 yuan to more than 21,000 yuan, or more than 13%. Since the transmission of finished drugs to terminal drugs is limited by many factors, and the cost of raw material companies is increasing, it is still a process to be conducted downstream. Therefore, with the strong consolidation of basic materials, the market outlook will still maintain a good process.

In addition, it has been learned from import and export companies that the export orders for nitrochlorobenzene pharmaceuticals in the downstream industrial chain are also increasing. For example, the increase in the demand for para-aminophenols in India will drive the continuous development of the entire pharmaceutical industry chain. Good development.

Strong short-term market

In the short term, due to the limited production phenomenon, terminal consumption has not weakened, so the market for nitrochlorobenzene is still expected to remain strong.

The phenomenon of power cut caused by energy conservation and emission reduction still exists in the short term, and the entire industrial chain including nitrochlorobenzene will be affected to varying degrees. However, the demand for products such as terminal dyes, pharmaceuticals, and auxiliaries has not been affected much, and consumer prices have risen. The increase in the prices of consumer goods this time reflects the continued improvement of the macroeconomic outlook and the obvious trend of increasing the prices of industrial products.

From the point of view of basic raw materials, there is still room for the foreign exchange of pure benzene to promote the domestic market, and the support will continue to grow. Since September, international benzene has continuously risen, closing FOB (Korea) prices to 959 USdollars/ton on October 22, a monthly increase of 10%, and the international arbitrage window has been opened, which does not rule out the possibility of pure benzene exports. According to statistics, as of October 22, the inventory of pure benzene in domestic ports was already less than 30,000 tons, a decrease of 30% from the beginning of the month. In addition, Yangzi Petrochemical started to overhaul after maintenance. Equipment repairs were carried out by Dalian Fujia Dahua, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical and other companies. Domestic benzene was still in a good position after recent consolidation under the premise of strong external disk and internal supply reduction. , Form a strong support for the nitrochlorobenzene market.

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