"Kim does not change" fell into "sand" in two years

After the price drop on March 7, many listed Chinese patent medicine companies benefited because Sanqi is the basic raw material for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. At present, China includes Xuesaitong Capsules, Xueshuantong Injection, Sanqi Tongshu Capsules, and Compound Danshen Tablets. Yunnanbaiyao, compound Danshen Dripping Pills and other drugs should be used.

Although it was called "gold is not exchanged," Panzhihua has already fallen from "gold" to "sand" within two years.

The reporter was informed that so far, the price of Sanqi has fallen by 70% to 90% compared with 2013. Jia Haibin, director of the Chinese Medicines Information Center of the Chinese Medicine Association, said in an interview with reporters that during the plunging of March and July this year, farmers were still weak in information, and local and large enterprises played a role in boosting the industrialization of large-scale production. Without considering the demand issue, he admitted that "it is a mistake (referring to the 'Plan 37 production plan'), but in the future, with the strengthening of information transparency in the origin, it is unlikely that such an extreme example as the case of March 7 will appear. ”

However, at the level of pharmaceutical companies, this round of “disguised” has benefited many drug companies, including Zhongheng Group, All Health Pharmaceuticals, and Kunming Pharmaceutical Group.

Farmers, medicinal herbs Qi Qi damaged

Panax notoginseng, also known as Tian Qi, Nanguo Shencao, “Gold is not changed”, is a kind of Chinese herbal medicine that has the best medicinal effect for three to seven years. In recent years, as one of the special agricultural products, the price of Sanqi experienced a “roller coaster”-like change. From the peak of more than 900 yuan/kg, it has plummeted to more than 100 yuan/kg, and Sanchi spent only two years.

According to the monitoring of Chinese herbal medicine world network, in May, non-standard Sanheqi 120 ("head" on behalf of different specifications of March 7, the smaller the number, the larger the head, the higher the price) price per kilogram in 100 to 110 yuan, The standard head price is between 115 and 120 yuan, and the price of 20 standard heads is between 380 and 400 yuan. This price has fallen by 70% to 90% compared to 2013.

But this decline has not stopped. Because the current production of Panax is still far more than the demand. By the end of 2014, the output of Yunnan Sanchi reached a historical peak of 23,000 tons, far exceeding the annual demand of 12,000 tons. In 2015, the output of Sanchi is expected to exceed 45,000 tons. Zhuo Chuang analyst Zhang Bin accepted an interview with a reporter from China Business News that the downtrend will continue. The reasons include overproduction, market saturation, withdrawal of external funds, poor pharmaceutical companies, and insufficient food and beverage capacity.

In this slump, "farmers are the worst, and 37 must be planted for three years. They are now planted and even the labor costs are lost." A long-term company leader in the procurement of Chinese herbal medicines to the "First Finance" The Daily reporter said that he was very helpless. “We have done a detailed analysis of every medicine we need to do, and we have already passed a demand ceiling on March 37. We have repeatedly warned Yunnan farmers about the risks, but when they make money, they all make money. No one will listen to it.” Zeng Lipin, president of the Wensan Sanqi Industry Association in Yunnan, also said, “Now the market is not good, some people are shoddy, and the cost is reduced through speculation methods such as red clay and waxing.” In addition to farmers, Medicinal manufacturers also suffered serious losses. Local drug dealers in Guangzhou admitted to reporters that they have lost a million yuan this year and “fall into scum.”

Jia Haibin believes that in the future, we must re-appear the extreme example of March 7th. First, we must strengthen information guidance and estimate the future production situation; in addition, supervise malicious human speculation and guide capital to use financial instruments to replace speculation in the raw material market. Finally, we must guide the production enterprises to set production and sales, and protect the interests of farmers. The above-mentioned person in charge also suggested that the roller coaster-type price trend like the 37 is originally predictable and preventable, but the state must improve the mechanism.

Citigroup step after step?

After the price drop on March 7, many listed Chinese patent medicine companies benefited because Sanqi is the basic raw material for the treatment of cardiovascular diseases. At present, China includes Xuesaitong Capsules, Xueshuantong Injection, Sanqi Tongshu Capsules, and Compound Danshen Tablets. Yunnanbaiyao, compound Danshen Dripping Pills and other drugs should be used. Therefore, the price reduction directly benefits the company.

For example, Zhongheng Group’s “Mainstay” thrombosis, its sales last year reached 2.88 billion yuan, Changjiang Securities estimated that in 2013, the average cost of procurement for Panax notoginseng would be 650 yuan/kg, and it is expected that the average price reduction for Panax pseudoginsis in 2014 will be 250 yuan / kg, then calculated in accordance with the use of 750 tons in 2014, the reduction in cost of Sanqi is 1.875 billion yuan, and the net profit after tax is 158 million yuan. In 2014, the company's net profit after deduction was 859 million yuan, an increase of 37.37% year-on-year.

In addition to the Zhongheng Group, the Compound Xueshuantong Capsules of all Shengxue Pharmaceuticals also benefited. The annual report shows that the sales gross profit of Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical's proprietary Chinese medicines increased from 65.36% to 73.39%. In addition, Kunming Pharmaceutical Group is also a beneficiary. Changshu Securities Liu Shuchang estimated that according to the usage amount of about 400 tons in 2014, the cost reduction rate of March 7 will be about 80 million yuan, and the net profit after tax will be about 66.48 million yuan (assumed tax rate). Maintained at 16.9%), thickening about 21% of 2014 net profit. Yunnan Baiyao also frankly stated that “at present, Panzhihua’s price has dropped sharply and the market is expected to stay at low prices in the short term, which will benefit the acquisition of raw materials by March 7.”

Although there is no specific data indicating the final profitability of the listed company, it may be possible to snoop through the data. Relevant statistics show that in 2013, the total output value of Wenzhou's Sanzhou industry reached 11.73 billion yuan, and sales revenue was 17.06 billion yuan. Last year, raw material prices plummeted, the total output value plummeted to 6.12 billion yuan, and sales revenue also fell sharply to 8.52 billion yuan. Yuan, the planting area of ​​that year was 240,000 mu and 300,000 mu. In the case of rising output, the local area made less than half of the total output of more than 8.5 billion yuan in the year. Some of these inflows into the market went to listed companies. Hands.

The soaring price of Sanqi made the industry chain ride a "roller coaster". In the future, who will be the next "37"?

"Now the price of ginseng and red ginseng has risen sharply, and there is a tendency to follow in the footsteps of March 37." Miss Chen (a pseudonym) who spent many years in the herbal medicine market told the reporter of the "First Financial Daily" that two or three years ago, American ginseng More than 300 yuan / kg, has now risen to more than 800 yuan / kg, red ginseng prices go even more terrible, one kilogram of the price rose from 200 yuan to 800 to 900 yuan, doubled upward, "This trend is followed by several years The trend in the first three-seven is the same. The official saying is that the production area has been lost, but in our experience, even if the medicinal materials are lost, they will not double in value. Therefore, there is also a strong rumor in the industry that large capital may be sold." In addition, Macka, who was also scrambled before, also seems to face a sharp drop in prices.

Jia Haibin believes that although American ginseng and other species are participatory and have a long production cycle, and this year's market conditions are not good enough, they will not be excavated, and they will not be extremes like the case of Panax pseudoginsis. However, he believes that there is also a need for early warning and speeding up the construction of production and sales docking to prevent another one. There is a price chaos.